DATE: Tuesday, February 17, 2026

FROM: Brent Buchanan, Pollster, CEO & Founder, Cygnal

RE: Deaton’s Data-Backed Path to an Upset in November

Executive Summary

The right Republican can win the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race by exploiting a rare convergence of structural and candidate specific vulnerabilities: Ed Markey turns age 80 in July and has already drawn intraparty chatter about his 50-year tenure in DC, showing softness rather than dominance. Meanwhile, GOP Senate nominees have held the Republican floor in the 30s even in bad national environments, demonstrating that a credible Republican with the right messaging and resources can push that floor into the low 40s. Deaton already hit 40% ballot share in 2024, and Markey sits at 40% definite support, meaning the race is essentially tied to start. Combined with growing voter fatigue toward long-tenured incumbents and frustration over affordability, housing, and healthcare, the door has opened for insider-vs-outsider contest that benefits a Republican challenger.

Key Data

John Deaton is viewed by voters as a relatable candidate with a connective

biography and compelling issue platform. That’s why after voters hear about Deaton, the race shifts from D+24 to D+5 with 15% undecided and Markey at a weak 45% ballot share.

The Set Up

Former GOP Governor Charlie Baker still maintains a 58% favorability (27% unfav). In contrast, Senator Ed Markey’s image is net 20-points more negative (47 fav, 36 unfav). Only 40% of voters initially say they are definitely voting for Markey against John Deaton.

The Messages Work

After voters are exposed to Deaton’s biography – both good and bad – his unique issue platform, and Markey’s failures, the U.S. Senate race moves from 30 – 54 (D+24) to 40 – 45 (D+5) with 15% undecided. Importantly, these undecided voters are frustrated with the status quo and would be more likely to vote for Deaton out of protest than support the incumbent.

The Shocking Audiences that Moved the Needle

Non-college voters moved strongly to Deaton on the informed ballot. What’s more surprising is that the largest group that abandoned Markey and embraced Deaton are women, including college-educated women. In all my years of polling, I’ve not experienced a shift of this demographic toward a Republican, which shows something unique about Deaton.

The Path Forward

With Markey and Seth Moulton engaged in a heated Democratic primary, Deaton has a head start opportunity to introduce himself to voters, particularly with his Poverty to Marines story. He also must talk about key portions of his policy platform, including health insurance, affordability,

skills training, and insurance companies – topics polling proves move voters his way.

Methodology: This probabilistic survey was conducted January 22 – 25, 2026, with n800 likely general election voters. It has a margin of error of ±3.46%. Likely voters were interviewed via live phone calls and secure text-to-web interviews. This survey was weighted to a likely 2026 midterm voters audience.

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